Bangkok & Phuket Condos: What Oversupply Really Means for Buyers in 2026

Thailand continues to attract strong international interest, and cities like Bangkok and Phuket remain firmly on the radar for Australians looking to combine lifestyle, affordability, and long-term value.

But as we move toward 2026, one question is becoming increasingly relevant for smart buyers:

Will there be more condominiums than buyers in certain parts of the market?

This isn’t a headline-grabbing “crash” narrative — it’s a more nuanced supply-and-demand conversation that matters if you’re planning to buy well.

Bangkok: Large Market, Large Supply

Bangkok has one of the most active condominium development pipelines in Southeast Asia. Over the past decade, developers have delivered hundreds of thousands of units, particularly along mass-transit corridors.

Recent market data shows:

• Roughly 25–30% of completed condo stock in Greater Bangkok remains unsold, depending on location and segment
• New condo transfers fell sharply in 2024, with some reports showing declines of over 10–15% year-on-year
• Thai household debt remains high (close to 90% of GDP), limiting local buyer capacity and slowing absorption

What this means in practice is not that Bangkok is “bad” — but that buyers have leverage, especially in:

• Investor-grade, non-scarce projects
• Fringe locations with many comparable developments
• Buildings competing primarily on price rather than quality or livability

For prepared buyers, this environment can create negotiation opportunities, but only if you know where oversupply is concentrated — and where it isn’t.

Phuket: Strong Demand, But Supply Is Catching Up

Phuket is a different story — and this is where nuance matters.

International demand has been exceptionally strong, driven by:

• Lifestyle migration
• Tourism-linked investment
• Long-stay and retirement buyers

However, government-linked research bodies have also flagged that:

• More than 10,000 residential units (including condos) remain unsold across Phuket
• Condominiums make up the largest share of new residential supply
• New launches continue, particularly in mid-range condo developments

In simple terms:
Demand is strong — but supply is growing fast.

Oversupply risk in Phuket is not evenly spread. It tends to be higher in:

• Commodity-style condo projects
• Areas with heavy short-term rental focus and limited owner-occupier appeal

Meanwhile, well-located, lifestyle-driven, low-density projects continue to perform far better.

What This Means for Lifestyle & Retirement Buyers

If you’re buying to live in, enjoy, or retire to Thailand, oversupply isn’t something to fear — but it is something to plan around.

In markets with rising supply:

• The wrong property can underperform or feel interchangeable
• The right property, bought well, can benefit from choice, incentives, and timing

The key risk isn’t buying in Bangkok or Phuket — it’s buying without preparation, clarity, or market context.

Why Preparation Matters More Than Timing

Many Australians assume they should engage only when they’re “ready to buy.”
In reality, the best outcomes come when:

• Research is done early
• Locations and building types are filtered properly
• Legal, ownership, and structure questions are resolved in advance

That way, when the right opportunity appears, you’re not rushed — you’re ready.

A Smarter Way to Buy in Thailand

Both Bangkok and Phuket will continue to attract buyers in 2026 and beyond.
But the market is shifting from seller-led to buyer-selective in many segments.

For Australians considering:

• A lifestyle condominium
• A retirement base
• Or a long-term Thailand strategy

The advantage now lies with those who prepare first and purchase second.

If you’d like help understanding where supply risk exists — and where genuine long-term value still sits — that’s exactly what we guide clients through.